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Jillian Michaels & Reduced Calories?

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If I reduce my calories to my appropriate BMR and do the Jillian Michaels 30-Day Shred DVD, how much weight should I expect to lose in a month? I am 174.5 lbs and have lost 9 lbs before this. (I was about to cry the first time I did the DVD it was sooo hard! And I used to consider myself an avid excerciser! How do these 400 pound people do it?!)