Jillian michaels & reduced calories?

If I reduce my calories to my appropriate BMR and do the Jillian Michaels 30-Day Shred DVD, how much weight should I expect to lose in a month? I am 174.5 lbs and have lost 9 lbs before this. (I was about to cry the first time I did the DVD it was sooo...

hard! And I used to consider myself an avid excerciser! How do these 400 pound people do it?!)

I wouldn't trust a DVD if I were you. You can try it, but those things are advertised to people desperate to lose weight. I'm pretty healthy myself and those informercials even make me feel guilty. Once they made me annoyed enough to do a few push ups :D
My point is, the biggest thing you need now is self-motivation.
I suggest running, but everyone is different so experiment with bike riding and swimming too (etc)
Running will be my example though.
Let's say you're going to run half a mile around your neighborhood area.
You start by standing still and looking down your street. Look at the street and think-
I WILL run this.
You can push yourself to the very limit if you truly believe.
I know this has little to do with your actual question, and for that I'm sorry.
But, nonetheless, you have power.
You can believe anything you want to.
I want you to just try once.
Go outside.
Look at that road.
And say out loud,
'I WILL run this.'
And go for it.
Push yourself harder than you imagine is humanely possible.
And when you can't go anymore,
know that you accomplished something.
If you don't like that,
then you can quit.
Remember running also gets immensely easier after you do it for a while, and also if you really push yourself.

You should burn around 500 more cal each day than you eat. Its OK to lose around 1.5 to 2 lbs each week but no more than that. Drink plenty of water, 7 hours of rest each night along with a workout plan and the weight will come off. good luck.